A new data assimilation procedure to develop a debris flow run-out model

Abstract Parameter calibration is one of the most problematic phases of numerical modeling since the choice of parameters affects the model\u2019s reliability as far as the physical problems being studied are concerned. In some cases, laboratory tests or physical models evaluating model parameters cannot be completed and other strategies must be adopted; numerical models reproducing debris flow propagation are one of these. Since scale problems affect the reproduction of real debris flows in the laboratory or specific tests used to determine rheological parameters, calibration is usually carried out by comparing in a subjective way only a few parameters, such as the heights of soil deposits calculated for some sections of the debris flows or the distance traveled by the debris flows using the values detected in situ after an event has occurred. Since no automatic or objective procedure has as yet been produced, this paper presents a numerical procedure based on the application of a statistical algorithm, which makes it possible to define, without ambiguities, the best parameter set. The procedure has been applied to a study case for which digital elevation models of both before and after an important event exist, implicating that a good database for applying the method was available. Its application has uncovered insights to better understand debris flows and related phenomena

From Computational Fluid Dynamics to Structure Interpretation via Neural Networks: An Application to Flow and Transport in Porous Media

The modeling of flow and transport in porous media is of the utmost importance in many chemical engineering applications, including catalytic reactors, batteries, and CO2 storage. The aim of this study is to test the use of fully connected (FCNN) and convolutional neural networks (CNN) for the prediction of crucial properties in porous media systems: The permeability and the filtration rate. The data-driven models are trained on a dataset of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. To this end, the porous media geometries are created in silico by a discrete element method, and a rigorous setup of the CFD simulations is presented. The models trained have as input both geometrical and operating conditions features so that they could find application in multiscale modeling, optimization problems, and in-line control. The average error on the prediction of the permeability is lower than 2.5%, and that on the prediction of the filtration rate is lower than 5% in all the neural networks models. These results are achieved with at least a dataset of ~ 100 CFD simulations

Debris flood hazard documentation and mitigation on the Tilcara alluvial fan (Quebrada de Humahuaca, Jujuy province, North-West Argentina)

Abstract. For some decades, mass wasting processes such as landslides and debris floods have been threatening villages and transportation routes in the Rio Grande Valley, named Quebrada de Humauhuaca. One of the most significant examples is the urban area of Tilcara, built on a large alluvial fan. In recent years, debris flood phenomena have been triggered in the tributary valley of the Huasamayo Stream and reached the alluvial fan on a decadal basis. In view of proper development of the area, hazard and risk assessment together with risk mitigation strategies are of paramount importance. The need is urgent also because the Quebrada de Humahuaca was recently included in the UNESCO World Cultural Heritage. Therefore, the growing tourism industry may lead to uncontrolled exploitation and urbanization of the valley, with a consequent increase of the vulnerability of the elements exposed to risk. In this context, structural and non structural mitigation measures not only have to be based on the understanding of natural processes, but also have to consider environmental and sociological factors that could hinder the effectiveness of the countermeasure works. The hydrogeological processes are described with reference to present-day hazard and risk conditions. Considering the socio-economic context, some possible interventions are outlined, which encompass budget constraints and local practices. One viable solution would be to build a protecting dam upstream of the fan apex and an artificial channel, in order to divert the floodwaters in a gully that would then convey water and sediments into the Rio Grande, some kilometers downstream of Tilcara. The proposed remedial measures should employ easily available and relatively cheap technologies and local workers, incorporating low environmental and visual impacts issues, in order to ensure both the future conservation of the site and its safe exploitation for inhabitants and tourists

Strategies for rock slope failure early warning using acoustic emission monitoring

Research over the last two decades has led to development of a system for soil slopes monitoring based on the concept of measuring Acoustic Emission (AE). A feature of the system is the use of waveguides installed within unstable soil slopes. It has been demonstrated that the AE measured through this technique are proportional to soil displacement rate. Attention has now been focused on the prospect of using the system within rock materials. The different nature of the slope material to be monitored and its setting means that different acoustic trends are measured, and development of new approaches for their interpretation are required. A total of six sensors have been installed in two pilot sites, firstly in Italy, for monitoring of a stratified limestone slope which can threaten a nationally important road, and secondly in Austria, for monitoring of a conglomerate slope that can endanger a section of the local railway. In this paper an outline of the two trial sites is given and AE data collected are compared with other physical measurements (i.e. rainfall and temperature) and traditional geotechnical instrumentation, to give an overview of recurring AE trends. These include clear AE signatures generated by stress changes linked to increased ground water levels and high energy events generated by freeze-thaw of the rock mass. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd

Real estate performance measurement in markets with thin information

Historically, different index construction methodologies have been used to represent the behaviour of real estate markets. They can be grouped into four main categories: valuation based indexes and transaction-based ones, synthetic measures ( e.g . created by using prime rents and yields) and vehicle-based performances (property companies and Real Estate Investment Trusts). Each measure requires a different set of data. When we consider markets with thin information, data availability plays a major role in defining the applicability of these construction methodologies. Moreover, if the aim of an index is to show long-term performances in such markets, individual property data (e. g. periodic valuations) used by main index providers may not be retrievable historically. This work describes main index construction methodologies used in the property industry or suggested in relevant finance literature. Three new methodologies are applied to the UK market and their ability to represent a "true" estimate of market performance is tested by comparing these new figures with the current valuation-based index. The first methodology employs purchase prices and last valuations to create repeated-measure regression returns. We find this index to behave more similarly to an unsmoothed version of the valuation based index than to its original series. Secondly, we obtain an estimate of market performance from vehicle-based in formation by adopting a weighted average cost of capital framework. Finally, we apply a capital asset pricing model net of illiquidity costs to public real estate returns and find an improvement in correlation coefficients even at a monthly frequency. All these three methodologies may be used to create historical series in markets where information are not easily available. They all represent a good proxy for unsmoothed real estate returns, The choice between these three methodologies should be data driven since there is no theoretical a-prior to prefer one to another

Unimpaired Neuropsychological Performance and Enhanced Memory Recall in Patients with Sbma: A Large Sample Comparative Study.

Peculiar cognitive profile of patients with SBMA has been described by fragmented literature. Our retrospective study reports the neuropsychological evaluations of a large cohort of patients in order to contribute towards the understanding of this field. We consider 64 neuropsychological evaluations assessing mnesic, linguistic and executive functions collected from 2013 to 2015 in patients attending at Motor Neuron Disease Centre of University of Padova. The battery consisted in: Digit Span forwards and backwards, Prose Memory test, Phonemic Verbal fluency and Trail making tests. ANCOVA statistics were employed to compare tests scores results with those obtained from a sample of healthy control subjects. Multiple linear regressions were used to study the effect on cognitive performance of CAG-repeat expansion, the degree of androgen insensitivity and their interaction to cognitive performance. Statistical analyses did not reveal altered scores in any neuropsychological tests among those adopted. Interestingly, patients performed significantly better in the Prose Memory test's score. No relevant associations were found with genetic, hormonal or clinical patients' profile. Results inconsistent with previous studies have been interpreted according to the phenomenon of somatic mosaicism. We suggest a testosterone-related and the mood state-dependant perspectives as two possible interpretations of the enhanced performances in the Prose Memory test. Further studies employing more datailed tests batteries are encouraged

Validation of landslide hazard assessment by means of GPS monitoring technique ? a case study in the Dolomites (Eastern Alps, Italy)

International audienceIn the last years a research project aimed at the assessment of the landslide hazard and susceptibility in the high Cordevole river basin (Eastern Dolomites, Italy) have been carried out. The hazard map was made adopting the Swiss Confederation semi-deterministic approach that takes into account parameters such as velocity, geometry and frequency of landslides. Usually these parameters are collected by means of geological and morphological surveys, historical archive researches, aerophotogrammetric analysis etc. In this framework however the dynamics of an instable slope can be difficult to determine. This work aims at illustrating some progress in landslide hazard assessment using a modified version of the Swiss Confederation semi-deterministic approach in which the values of some parameters have been refined in order to accomplish more reliable results in hazard assessment. A validation of the accuracy of these new values, using GPS and inclinometric measurements, has been carried out on a test site located inside the high Cordevole river basin

Evaluation of seismic effects on the landslide deposits of Monte Salta (Eastern Italian Alps) using distinct element method

International audienceThe aim of the paper is to present the modelling of the ground effects of seismic waves on a large debris deposit lying on a steep mountain slope, with particular attention paid to the potential triggering of slope movements. The study site is a mass of 2.5 million m3 rock fall deposit, named "Monte Salta Landslide", located on the northern slope of the Vajont valley, at the border between Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia regions in north-eastern Italy. Several historical landslide events were reported in the area in the past, first one dating back to the 17th century. The landslide deposit completely mantles the slope with a thick cover of rock blocks. The Mt. Salta landslide is conditioned by the presence of Mt. Borgà regional thrust, which uplifts Jurassic limestone on the top of Cretaceous rock units. Above the thrust zone, folded and highly fractured rock mass dips steeply towards the slope free face, producing highly unstable setting. The study area has been classified as high seismic hazard and different vulnerable elements can be affected by the remobilisation of debris, among which a village, a national road and a big quarry that was opened, with the intent to exploit the part of the landslide deposit for construction purposes. In this study, numerical analysis was performed, to simulate the slope behaviour using distinct element method and applying UDEC code. The 2-D models were built on three cross-sections and elasto-plastic behaviour was assumed, both for rock matrix and discontinuities. The earthquake effect was modelled in pseudo-dynamic way, i.e. by magnifying the acceleration and applying also its horizontal component. The expected seismic acceleration in the study area was calculated on the basis of previous studies as equal to 0.28 g. The results proved that the increase of the vertical component alone has a small influence on the deformational behaviour of the system. Hence, the acceleration vector was deviated at 5° and then at 10° from the vertical. A small increment of the displacement was observed in the first case, whereas very large movements occurred in the second. Therefore, it can be concluded that, besides the magnitude of the earthquake, even small seismic waves in horizontal direction could trigger significant movements and therefore hazardous conditions. The modelled scenario should be helpful for planning of the functional countermeasure works and civil defence evacuation plan

Fiber opticsensors for precursory acoustic signals detection in rockfall events

Two fiber optic sensors (FOSs) for detection of precursory acoustic emissions in rockfall events are addressed and experimentally characterized. Both sensors are based on interferometric schemes, with the first one consisting of a fiber coil used as sensing element and the second one exploiting a micro-machined cantilever carved on the top of a ferrule. Preliminary comparisons with standard piezo-electric transducers shows the viability of such FOSs for acoustic emission monitoring in rock masses